Analysis of recent opinion polls says that in a general election Amber Rudd would be one of a number of high profile Conservative MPs who would lose their seats in the House of Commons.
But before Hastings and Rye Labour Party start to celebrate the news it’s not looking good for their man Peter Chowney either.
The analysis on behalf of Best for Britain suggest the Hastings and Rye parliamentary constituency would fall to either The Brexit Party or the Liberal Democrats. Both parties did well in the recent European elections and would be the big winners in a UK General Election.
Ms Rudd would be one of as many as 180 Conservaties to lose out, others include Penny Mordaunt, James Brokenshire, Gavin Williamson and Johnny Mercer. Boris Johnson who is being tipped to be the next Prime Minister would see his Uxbridge and Ruislip seat become ‘very marginal’.
Once again both major parties appear to be being punished by the electorate as the analysis of the polling data by Focaldata says it, “…seems virtually impossible that Labour could get a majority in Parliament with its current Brexit policy.”
Analysts say the only way Labour could form a government would be in coalition with the Liberal Democrats and/or the SNP – and the price for such a deal would be a second EU referendum.
If the poll results were reflected in an actual election The Conservative Party would lose more than 180 seats, mainly to the Brexit Party; Labour would see a 40 per cent drop in its 2017 vote; The Brexit Party winning 135 seats, 124 off the Conservative Party and 11 from Labour.
“The polling and modelling suggests months, if not years, of political deadlock,” say the report’s authors.
Best for Britain chief operating officer Naomi Smith said: “The consequences of Labour’s ambivalent policy towards a Final Say on Brexit looks set to hurt them further. They’re expected to lose almost half of their 2017 vote share, according to our analysis.
“The Labour leadership now needs to pick a side, and with them losing three times as many votes to Remain parties as they are to the Brexit Party, it is obvious which position they should take if they want to be in government.”
Focaldata collected vote intention data from 15,231 national poll respondents between 17 and 30 May, using a technique called MRP to estimate opinion in each UK constituency.